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According to the Commerce Department, the U.S. gross domestic product (the sum of the value of all goods and services produced) grew at only 1.6% in the third quarter of this year, down from 2.6% in the second quarter and a phenomenal 5.6% in the first quarter. One of the key factors in the sluggish growth was a major slowdown in the national housing market (in both construction and sales).
In Northwest Arkansas, there is an adjustment occurring in the housing market as well. But some of the other economic indicators (which are weak nationally) are positive here, according to Jeff Collins, Director of the Center for Economic and Business Research at the University of Arkansas’ Sam Walton School of Business.
In a keynote address at the Bentonville Development Conference, held Friday (October 27) for builders, developers, and others, Collins outlined several factors which still make NW Arkansas a good place to live and do business and which bode well for a continuing strong economy here.
First, although there is an oversupply of homes available, particularly in Benton County, there are still approximately 1200 people per month moving to NW Arkansas. This will help in the absorption of current inventory. The current buyer’s market and a leveling of home prices, as well as continuing low interest rates, make this a good time to purchase a home.
Second, job creation in the area continues at over 600 jobs created each month. He noted that from 1996 to 2006, 49% of all new jobs in Arkansas were created in NW Arkansas. People who move to NW Arkansas (except for retirees), do so for employment reasons.
Collins did note a couple of warning signals, however, and stressed the need for creating high wage, high skill jobs. In the past these jobs were in manufacturing, but those are disappearing and being replaced with service sector positions. Service sector employment does not necessarily mean low wage positions but also can include professionals such as doctors, lawyers and others. The key to creating such high wage, high skill jobs is growth in education which will result in knowledge-based employment and higher-wage positions. At present, although NW Arkansas is one of the most affluent areas in the state, per capita personal income (PCPI) is only 80% of the national average. The rest of Arkansas is “poorer”.
Another challenge for the area is to manage the infrastructure required for the continuing growth. The trend in all of Arkansas is towards increasing urbanization in Little Rock and NW Arkansas, while other areas are actually losing population. But public resources are lagging, and must be brought up to speed.
All in all though, Collins seemed optimistic about the area’s ability to weather these challenges and about the current positive outlook for economic activity in NW Arkansas.
For more information about the Commerce Department report:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/27/AR2006102700408.html
Showing posts with label job growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label job growth. Show all posts
Saturday, October 28, 2006
Sunday, February 26, 2006
My Take on the New Millken Report (see below)
The new Millken Report has NW Arkansas continuing in the top 10 nationally as a vibrant economic zone. However, there were two areas of concern for possible future trends in the area: a low rating on technology output growth (a positive rating on this factor leads to higher paying professional and high-skill jobs) and increased housing values, which are now at the national average. The two trends, together with the strong job growth rating, points to a strong economy with low unemployment. But that job growth is and will continue to be of lower paying jobs which require less education. This, in my mind, hints at salaries for the average working person not keeping up with the cost of housing, thus creating a potential crisis in affordable housing.
When NW Arkansas topped the Millken Report a few years ago ahead of Las Vegas, the region catapulted to the top of the national radar in many respects. In the real estate market all of a sudden, in addition to local investors, there appeared investors from all over the country looking for “reasonable” investment property, beginning the upward exponential curve in prices for low-end homes and multi-family properties.
What happened was that many of the older existing homes, previously priced under $100K, began creeping upward in price as investors competed with first-time and low-income home buyers. Homes in that price range became smaller and shabbier as prices continued to rise significantly over the past couple of years. Now it is almost impossible to find a livable home for under $130K. Most homes in that price range either need work or are very small or both.
Sometimes these small fixer-uppers are even priced higher per square foot than nicer, larger homes. As recently as 3-4 years ago (before NW Arkansas was #1 according to the Millken Report), an older home in Springdale usually was listed for and sold for under $55 per square foot in the under $100K price range. Now these same homes—many in barely livable condition—are listed for and sell for over $85 per square foot. Some even sell for over $100 per square foot if they are in excellent condition.
On the other hand, larger, older homes in the $150K-$200K price range--completely remodeled--are being listed and sold at between $75 and $85 per square foot. But a home like this is not a suitable “rent house” and there is still a lot of building going on in this price range. The law of supply and demand applies here.
A contributing factor is that because of escalating land prices and higher construction and development costs, almost no builders are making small “starter” homes any more. As these costs increase, the new starter homes are now larger than they were previously, but they also have significantly higher price tags. It is no longer possible to acquire a home like this for under $100K, whereas about 3-4 years ago there were several builders offering such new homes as low as $75K. But such homes are also great rent houses. With the increased competition from investors as well as the lack of construction of new homes at affordable prices, first-time and low-income home buyers are having a tougher time finding adequate housing.
Even rental prices are rising as a result. In 2002 an average newer duplex with 3 bedrooms on each side in east Springdale was listed and sold for about $120K or less, depending on condition. Rents for those duplexes were about $550-$575. Now rents have risen to between $600-$650 for those units, and those same duplexes are listed for sale at $175K or above and selling for a minimum of $165K. Even some 2-bedroom units are selling for $165K. And the new duplexes being built are listed at $200K or above. Supposedly these can be rented at $850 per side per month, but I wonder….
In any case, because home prices on the low end and multi-family properties are now so expensive due to increased demand and low supply, rents are also rising as units are sold.
Is affordable housing in NW Arkansas a thing of the past? I hope not.
When NW Arkansas topped the Millken Report a few years ago ahead of Las Vegas, the region catapulted to the top of the national radar in many respects. In the real estate market all of a sudden, in addition to local investors, there appeared investors from all over the country looking for “reasonable” investment property, beginning the upward exponential curve in prices for low-end homes and multi-family properties.
What happened was that many of the older existing homes, previously priced under $100K, began creeping upward in price as investors competed with first-time and low-income home buyers. Homes in that price range became smaller and shabbier as prices continued to rise significantly over the past couple of years. Now it is almost impossible to find a livable home for under $130K. Most homes in that price range either need work or are very small or both.
Sometimes these small fixer-uppers are even priced higher per square foot than nicer, larger homes. As recently as 3-4 years ago (before NW Arkansas was #1 according to the Millken Report), an older home in Springdale usually was listed for and sold for under $55 per square foot in the under $100K price range. Now these same homes—many in barely livable condition—are listed for and sell for over $85 per square foot. Some even sell for over $100 per square foot if they are in excellent condition.
On the other hand, larger, older homes in the $150K-$200K price range--completely remodeled--are being listed and sold at between $75 and $85 per square foot. But a home like this is not a suitable “rent house” and there is still a lot of building going on in this price range. The law of supply and demand applies here.
A contributing factor is that because of escalating land prices and higher construction and development costs, almost no builders are making small “starter” homes any more. As these costs increase, the new starter homes are now larger than they were previously, but they also have significantly higher price tags. It is no longer possible to acquire a home like this for under $100K, whereas about 3-4 years ago there were several builders offering such new homes as low as $75K. But such homes are also great rent houses. With the increased competition from investors as well as the lack of construction of new homes at affordable prices, first-time and low-income home buyers are having a tougher time finding adequate housing.
Even rental prices are rising as a result. In 2002 an average newer duplex with 3 bedrooms on each side in east Springdale was listed and sold for about $120K or less, depending on condition. Rents for those duplexes were about $550-$575. Now rents have risen to between $600-$650 for those units, and those same duplexes are listed for sale at $175K or above and selling for a minimum of $165K. Even some 2-bedroom units are selling for $165K. And the new duplexes being built are listed at $200K or above. Supposedly these can be rented at $850 per side per month, but I wonder….
In any case, because home prices on the low end and multi-family properties are now so expensive due to increased demand and low supply, rents are also rising as units are sold.
Is affordable housing in NW Arkansas a thing of the past? I hope not.
Expanded Region Slips to 8th Place in Milken Rating
Northwest Arkansas’ slip from No. 7 to No. 8 in the Milken Institute’s rating of the nation’s most vibrant economies for 2005 is a cause for celebration rather than concern, state economists say.
In the rankings released February 22, the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which includes Bentonville, ranked in the top 10 of the largest 200 cities for the third year in a row. The area made the No. 1 spot in 2003, then dropped to No. 7 in 2004. In 2002, the MSA ranked 23 rd in the top cities list.
The nonprofit Santa Monica, Calif.-based think tank ranks the nation’s metropolitan statistical areas for the best overall economies each year. Researchers base the rankings on several criteria, including job and wage and salary growth over the past five years. The institute helps business and public policy leaders identify and implement innovative ideas for creating broad-based prosperity, according to its Web site.
Lorna Wallace, a Milken Institute research fellow and senior staff member, attributed the drop to No. 8 to the U. S. Census Bureau’s addition of Madison County and McDonald County, Mo., to the MSA. The two counties were not considered in the Milken study last year. The Milken Institute relies on the Census Bureau’s definition of metropolitan statistical areas for its study groupings.
“The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA has a robust economy that outshines the rest of the state and most of the country,” Wallace said. “Its job growth rate by far exceeds the national pace.”
Wallace cited Bentonville-based Wal-Mart Stores Inc. ’s heavy influence on the regional economy for both positive and possible future negative factors. She also cited the presence of other national-level employers such as J. B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. and Tyson Foods Inc. and the University of Arkansas, a strong research university, as positives for the area.
The next-highest ranked larger metropolitan area in Arkansas was Little Rock-North Little Rock, ranked No. 94 overall and up from No. 106 in 2004. The city’s lowest sector ranking was in job growth, at No. 168 with 0. 24 percent. Fort Smith also ranked higher this year, moving up to No. 154 from No. 155 in 2004.
Three Arkansas MSAs were included in the Milken listing of the best 179 small cities. Hot Springs was ranked at No. 69. It was not ranked in 2004. Jonesboro ranked No. 99, down from No. 64 in 2004. Pine Bluff was ranked at No. 144, down from No. 94 in 2004.
Mitch Chandler, director of communications for the Arkansas Department of Economic Development, said Northwest Arkansas ’ ranking for the third year shows that the area’s growth is a proven trend. “This shows the phenomenal and consistent growth of the area.” he said.
Job and wage growth are the strongest contributors to the listing, said Jeff Collins, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the Sam M. Walton College of Business.
The Walton College is part of the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville. “Job and wage growth is a 15- to 20-year trend, not a one- to two-year trend,” Collins said. “Given that this measures the entire country on the same data, it gives a lot of validation to be listed in the top 10 from year to year.” He predicts that the region will continue to do well with those growth drivers in place. The region scored its highest ranking in the five-year wage and salary growth category, taking the No. 3 spot. It was ranked 14th in one-year wage and salary growth. The five-year job growth ranking was 7th and the one-year job growth was ranked 23 rd.
WEAKEST LINK:
The region’s lowest ranking — No. 154 — was in the area of technology output growth. Collins said the high-tech industry is one in which the state traditionally performs poorly. “Employment opportunities for Arkansas seem to be overly weighted to the lower educated and lower-paying jobs,” he said. And added that even the University of Arkansas ’ efforts to push technology-based business is not enough to push the state out of the lowest levels of technology development. “We still don’t attract a lot of research and development activity, which is the precursor to higher-wage industries,” Collins said. “The UA is still too small in this area. Larger universities can get concentrations of engineers and scientists who can cooperate and collaborate on research.”
HOUSING CONCERNS:
Milken’s Wallace also cited the increased housing values as a growth factor in the region, a positive indicator of the present economy but a possible future concern. “Housing rates and values are near the national level,” she said. “That may pose a risk going forward.” Unless other economic indexes also rise to the national level, increased interest rates or a slowing of the construction rate will influence the affordability of housing in the region. Collins said the housing component is a relatively small sector in the Milken Institute’s ranking data. “But there is some disconnect between supply and demand in housing,” he said. “While I have some concerns about segments in the market, there is still opportunity for growth and profit in housing after careful planning and consideration.” He said the national housing values really don’t contribute much to the local housing market. “The people who are moving in here and buying houses are already paying the national rates,” he said. “This doesn’t affect them.”
Condensed from: NWA News, Arkansas Democrat Gazette, February 23, 2006
In the rankings released February 22, the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which includes Bentonville, ranked in the top 10 of the largest 200 cities for the third year in a row. The area made the No. 1 spot in 2003, then dropped to No. 7 in 2004. In 2002, the MSA ranked 23 rd in the top cities list.
The nonprofit Santa Monica, Calif.-based think tank ranks the nation’s metropolitan statistical areas for the best overall economies each year. Researchers base the rankings on several criteria, including job and wage and salary growth over the past five years. The institute helps business and public policy leaders identify and implement innovative ideas for creating broad-based prosperity, according to its Web site.
Lorna Wallace, a Milken Institute research fellow and senior staff member, attributed the drop to No. 8 to the U. S. Census Bureau’s addition of Madison County and McDonald County, Mo., to the MSA. The two counties were not considered in the Milken study last year. The Milken Institute relies on the Census Bureau’s definition of metropolitan statistical areas for its study groupings.
“The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA has a robust economy that outshines the rest of the state and most of the country,” Wallace said. “Its job growth rate by far exceeds the national pace.”
Wallace cited Bentonville-based Wal-Mart Stores Inc. ’s heavy influence on the regional economy for both positive and possible future negative factors. She also cited the presence of other national-level employers such as J. B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. and Tyson Foods Inc. and the University of Arkansas, a strong research university, as positives for the area.
The next-highest ranked larger metropolitan area in Arkansas was Little Rock-North Little Rock, ranked No. 94 overall and up from No. 106 in 2004. The city’s lowest sector ranking was in job growth, at No. 168 with 0. 24 percent. Fort Smith also ranked higher this year, moving up to No. 154 from No. 155 in 2004.
Three Arkansas MSAs were included in the Milken listing of the best 179 small cities. Hot Springs was ranked at No. 69. It was not ranked in 2004. Jonesboro ranked No. 99, down from No. 64 in 2004. Pine Bluff was ranked at No. 144, down from No. 94 in 2004.
Mitch Chandler, director of communications for the Arkansas Department of Economic Development, said Northwest Arkansas ’ ranking for the third year shows that the area’s growth is a proven trend. “This shows the phenomenal and consistent growth of the area.” he said.
Job and wage growth are the strongest contributors to the listing, said Jeff Collins, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the Sam M. Walton College of Business.
The Walton College is part of the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville. “Job and wage growth is a 15- to 20-year trend, not a one- to two-year trend,” Collins said. “Given that this measures the entire country on the same data, it gives a lot of validation to be listed in the top 10 from year to year.” He predicts that the region will continue to do well with those growth drivers in place. The region scored its highest ranking in the five-year wage and salary growth category, taking the No. 3 spot. It was ranked 14th in one-year wage and salary growth. The five-year job growth ranking was 7th and the one-year job growth was ranked 23 rd.
WEAKEST LINK:
The region’s lowest ranking — No. 154 — was in the area of technology output growth. Collins said the high-tech industry is one in which the state traditionally performs poorly. “Employment opportunities for Arkansas seem to be overly weighted to the lower educated and lower-paying jobs,” he said. And added that even the University of Arkansas ’ efforts to push technology-based business is not enough to push the state out of the lowest levels of technology development. “We still don’t attract a lot of research and development activity, which is the precursor to higher-wage industries,” Collins said. “The UA is still too small in this area. Larger universities can get concentrations of engineers and scientists who can cooperate and collaborate on research.”
HOUSING CONCERNS:
Milken’s Wallace also cited the increased housing values as a growth factor in the region, a positive indicator of the present economy but a possible future concern. “Housing rates and values are near the national level,” she said. “That may pose a risk going forward.” Unless other economic indexes also rise to the national level, increased interest rates or a slowing of the construction rate will influence the affordability of housing in the region. Collins said the housing component is a relatively small sector in the Milken Institute’s ranking data. “But there is some disconnect between supply and demand in housing,” he said. “While I have some concerns about segments in the market, there is still opportunity for growth and profit in housing after careful planning and consideration.” He said the national housing values really don’t contribute much to the local housing market. “The people who are moving in here and buying houses are already paying the national rates,” he said. “This doesn’t affect them.”
Condensed from: NWA News, Arkansas Democrat Gazette, February 23, 2006
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