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On Friday I went to the Quarterly Business Analysis Breakfast sponsored by the U of A Center for Business and Economic Research. I like to go to these events because usually Kathy Deck, the director of the Center, gives incisive and informative economic data about Arkansas as a whole and NW Arkansas in particular. This usually confirms and explains what I see on a day-to-day basis as a real estate agent in the trenches.
Her presentation on Friday was basically positive, compared with previous meetings. The economy is getting better, according to the indicators she talked about--measures like GDP growth, Consumer Sentiment, Inflation, Unemployment, Job Growth, and the like.
The key to the real estate market in NW Arkansas is employment, and it appears that we're ahead of the curve compared to the rest of the state and to the US as a whole. If we don't have jobs, people will not want to move here. And if we don't have jobs, even people already here won't be able to buy a house. Increased employment will bring more home sales in the short term, as will seasonal factors.
But the construction sector will not lead economic growth in the near future according to Deck, rather it will follow it. And the tax credit of last year is long-since past. In addition, there is a large inventory of homes on the market, not to mention a full pipeline of foreclosures. These will continue to put downward pressure on prices.
The housing situation may be a bit brighter for some. It depends largely on an individual’s financial status, goals, and whether he is buying or selling. Home affordability in NW Arkansas, as well as nationwide is higher than it has been for a long time. And interest rates remain very low.
Nationwide the glut of unsold houses on the market is shrinking and absorption is occurring. No matter who you are, that is good news. But the glut (including foreclosures) has to be sold off before prices can stabilize. Prices will not begin to rise again until that glut is substantially gone.
Unfortunately, foreclosures are still occurring at a fairly high rate and for a time may even increase once mortgage holders work through the investigations into their sloppy foreclosure practices of the past.
Recent national statistical measures indicate sales are increasing when compared month over preceding month. However, year over year sales are down because sales in the early months of 2010 were artificially higher due to the homebuyer’s credit, which expired last June.
In some markets, prices seem to be at or near the bottom and investors are snapping up homes to rent out while they wait for the inevitable price increases.
Meanwhile, renters are feeling the impact from many sides. Owners who lost their homes through foreclosures were forced into the rental market. Builders stopped building new apartments when the economy turned sour. Some older apartment buildings have been torn down while other apartment complexes were turned into condos. More people wanting to rent fewer apartments means higher rents. The sad part is many lower income families are paying as much as 50% of their income on rent and utilities.
The March 2011 interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.84% - an excellent rate. But banks and mortgage companies are requiring higher credit ratings and higher ratio of income to monthly mortgage payment. I’m sure this is their response to the ridiculously low standards they used in the past – the standards that caused the whole housing debacle in the first place.
If lenders would return to the ratios that were in place for years before the debacle, more credit worthy borrowers would qualify to buy a home.
As the economy continues to improve, buyers will become more confident about the positive aspects of home ownership. There are already more buyers out looking, and as the spring progresses and the economy continues to improve, this will increase.
The housing sector will probably continue to struggle for awhile yet, but there are bright spots and I am seeing glimpses of more to come.
For more information:
Arkansas Business Journal
RISMEDIA
National Association of Realtors
Washington Post 1
Washington Post 2
Showing posts with label Kathy Deck. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kathy Deck. Show all posts
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Good Economic News in NW Arkansas
Some thoughts from the Arkansas Economic Issues Breakfast meeting I attended a few weeks ago on September 30…
First, at little background: This was the first in a semi-annual series bringing together Arkansas’s business, community, education and government leaders via video conferencing. There were people gathered in 7 locations, and speakers at three of them. In Fayetteville, the gathering was held at the Sam Walton School of Business at the U of A. The series is sponsored by Arkansas Business to promote economic development by disseminating high-quality information and analyses.
Governor Mike Beebe in Little Rock kicked off the event with good news: "We've added 22,000 new manufacturing jobs in the last 20 months.” Beebe also said we are on the brink of several non-U.S. companies coming to Arkansas.
The general consensus is that Arkansas has endured the recession considerably better than many states. Unemployment rates here never came close to double digits and the housing market did not suffer the huge declines seen elsewhere.
Kathy Deck, director of the University of Arkansas (Fayetteville) Center for Business and Economic Research, stated the recession is technically over, while at the same time acknowledging that the average consumer may not yet be ready to agree. People are still worried about the future in general and continue to be concerned about possibility of unemployment and the decline in value of homes and 401(k) retirement accounts.
On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being much better and 5 being much worse, the Fayetteville area's economic condition was ranked 2, which is better than all other areas in the state.
To summarize, NW Arkansas appears to have come through the recession better than the rest of the state and Arkansas, better than many other states.
However, there is always room for improvement. Highway construction, transportation, education, improving job skills, and business investment and expansion are at the top of everyone’s list. Other concerns include the overbuilt real estate market and health care.
For more information:
http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/printable.asp?aid=117380
First, at little background: This was the first in a semi-annual series bringing together Arkansas’s business, community, education and government leaders via video conferencing. There were people gathered in 7 locations, and speakers at three of them. In Fayetteville, the gathering was held at the Sam Walton School of Business at the U of A. The series is sponsored by Arkansas Business to promote economic development by disseminating high-quality information and analyses.
Governor Mike Beebe in Little Rock kicked off the event with good news: "We've added 22,000 new manufacturing jobs in the last 20 months.” Beebe also said we are on the brink of several non-U.S. companies coming to Arkansas.
The general consensus is that Arkansas has endured the recession considerably better than many states. Unemployment rates here never came close to double digits and the housing market did not suffer the huge declines seen elsewhere.
Kathy Deck, director of the University of Arkansas (Fayetteville) Center for Business and Economic Research, stated the recession is technically over, while at the same time acknowledging that the average consumer may not yet be ready to agree. People are still worried about the future in general and continue to be concerned about possibility of unemployment and the decline in value of homes and 401(k) retirement accounts.
On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being much better and 5 being much worse, the Fayetteville area's economic condition was ranked 2, which is better than all other areas in the state.
To summarize, NW Arkansas appears to have come through the recession better than the rest of the state and Arkansas, better than many other states.
However, there is always room for improvement. Highway construction, transportation, education, improving job skills, and business investment and expansion are at the top of everyone’s list. Other concerns include the overbuilt real estate market and health care.
For more information:
http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/printable.asp?aid=117380
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
3rd Quarter Skyline Report
Last Friday was the Fayetteville breakfast sponsored by Arvest Bank to release the 3rd quarter Skyline report for Washington County and Northwest Arkansas. As usual Kathy Deck, director of the U of A Center for Business and Economic Research, presented the highlights of the report, but also present was Tim Yeager, professor of finance at the Sam Walton College of Business, to talk about the $700 billion “bailout” which has received much attention in the national media.
Of interest to me was his take on the Secretary of the Treasury’s redirection of funds in the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program—which is the official name of the bill that Congress passed) from purchasing bad assets to a capital purchase plan. Yeager is in favor of the new plan, which he says is a better use of the funds.
The original plan to purchase bad assets was a bad situation because of the difficulty of pricing the assets, according to Yeager. If the assets were priced at the current deflated values, this would represent a permanent loss on those assets. The other alternative is to wait until the assets have appreciated again.
The new plan is to purchase preferred shares of healthy banks as well as large sick banks. There would be a dividend of 5% in the first 5 years.
Yeager also presented a suggestion that Congress should prepare a new fiscal stimulus plan—“just in case.” We don’t need it now, but if such legislation were in place for the future, it would be better for assuring the financial stability of the US economic system.
Kathy Deck prefaced her remarks about the housing market in NW Arkansas with some observations about the economy. Of importance in this regard is the fact that the unemployment rate here is 4% compared to the 6.5% national employment rate. Employment opportunities are what fuel growth to the area and thus housing growth.
Employment growth here did flatten in 2006. Thus new job creation is not terrific compared with years past (e.g. 6% employment growth at the peak in July if 2005), but in comparison to the negative employment growth in the rest of the country, we’re doing OK. Current job growth in NW Arkansas is about 1% whereas jobs are being lost in the rest of the country.
I’m not much interested in commercial real estate, so I’ll focus on what’s happening in the residential and multifamily sectors.
For multifamily, the vacancy rates for 1 and 2 bedroom apartments is still very high, over 10% for the 3rd quarter of this year. The actual rate was 12.2%, the same as the rate for the 3rd quarter of 2007. According to Deck, a healthy vacancy rate is 5% or less. The rates vary by town with Bentonville the highest with a 15.7% aggregate vacancy rate (down from 17.4% in the 2nd quarter). The rate for Fayetteville was 10.9% in the 3rd quarter, and that for Springdale was 11.6%. Rogers had a decrease to 14.1%, and the lowest aggregate vacancy rate for the 3rd quarter was in Siloam Springs—10.2%.
For residential real estate the Skyline Report primarily looks at new construction. The Center for Business and Economic Research consults with planning departments of NW Arkansas communities to determine new subdivisions which have been approved and building permits which have been issued. They obtain plats and send out students to determine what’s happening on each lot in the active subdivisions. An “active” subdivision is one where construction is currently occurring or has occurred during the past year.
They classify each lot into one of 5 categories: vacant (nothing going on), housing start (slab or foundation), under construction, complete but unoccupied, and occupied.
In both Washington and Benton Counties, the number of lots in active subdivisions has increased, but the number of homes under construction has decreased. In Benton County in Q3 of 2006, there were 12,454 lots, in Q3 of 2007 there were 16,313 lots, and in Q3 of 2008 there were 16,684 lots. In Washington County, there were 8337 lots in Q3 of 2006. In Q3 of 2007 there were 10,450 lots and in Q3 of 2008 there were 10,920 lots in active subdivisions.
There were approximately 100 homes under construction in Fayetteville in Q3, and approximately 240 complete but unoccupied homes. In Springdale there were approximately 50 homes under construction and about 120 complete but unoccupied homes. The absorption rate has been down from past quarters. This means that fewer homes are being sold.
Altogether current inventory of new homes was up in all towns of NW Arkansas with 55.8 months inventory for the 3rd quarter. What this means is that at the current rate of sales, it will take 55.8 months to sell all of the new homes on the market (almost 6 years), assuming that no additional homes are built. This does not take into account existing homes which are also on the market.
One factor of importance is the existence of a lot of foreclosure properties, which are causing a continuing downward pressure on prices. According to Deck, there are 747 bank-owned properties in Benton County, up from 502 six months ago. In Washington County there are 475 bank-owned properties up from 276 six months ago.
Altogether the price of homes sold has continued to decrease in Washington County, but in Benton County, prices have shown less inclination to decline. In Benton County in the 3rd quarter of 2008 the average sales price of existing homes declined by 1.6% and in Washington County by 4.1%.
Of more concern is the fact that from May 16, 2008 to August 15, 2008, there were 1662 existing homes sold in Benton and Washington Counties. This is a decline of 17.5% from the same time period last year.
From my point of view this is a great time to purchase a home. Prices have declined significantly and there are a lot of homes on the market, both new and resale. There are a lot of great deals now.
And for those folks who are waiting for the bottom of the market, we won’t really know when the bottom occurs until after it happens. And then prices will be on their way up again.
The important factor is that real estate investment is not like the stock market. Real estate is a long term investment, not short term. If you want to purchase a home now, plan on holding it at least 5 years to realize any appreciation. So if the market goes down a little more—bottom line is that it doesn’t matter. By the time 5 years have passed, prices will be on the way up again. Real estate is cyclical.
Of interest to me was his take on the Secretary of the Treasury’s redirection of funds in the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program—which is the official name of the bill that Congress passed) from purchasing bad assets to a capital purchase plan. Yeager is in favor of the new plan, which he says is a better use of the funds.
The original plan to purchase bad assets was a bad situation because of the difficulty of pricing the assets, according to Yeager. If the assets were priced at the current deflated values, this would represent a permanent loss on those assets. The other alternative is to wait until the assets have appreciated again.
The new plan is to purchase preferred shares of healthy banks as well as large sick banks. There would be a dividend of 5% in the first 5 years.
Yeager also presented a suggestion that Congress should prepare a new fiscal stimulus plan—“just in case.” We don’t need it now, but if such legislation were in place for the future, it would be better for assuring the financial stability of the US economic system.
Kathy Deck prefaced her remarks about the housing market in NW Arkansas with some observations about the economy. Of importance in this regard is the fact that the unemployment rate here is 4% compared to the 6.5% national employment rate. Employment opportunities are what fuel growth to the area and thus housing growth.
Employment growth here did flatten in 2006. Thus new job creation is not terrific compared with years past (e.g. 6% employment growth at the peak in July if 2005), but in comparison to the negative employment growth in the rest of the country, we’re doing OK. Current job growth in NW Arkansas is about 1% whereas jobs are being lost in the rest of the country.
I’m not much interested in commercial real estate, so I’ll focus on what’s happening in the residential and multifamily sectors.
For multifamily, the vacancy rates for 1 and 2 bedroom apartments is still very high, over 10% for the 3rd quarter of this year. The actual rate was 12.2%, the same as the rate for the 3rd quarter of 2007. According to Deck, a healthy vacancy rate is 5% or less. The rates vary by town with Bentonville the highest with a 15.7% aggregate vacancy rate (down from 17.4% in the 2nd quarter). The rate for Fayetteville was 10.9% in the 3rd quarter, and that for Springdale was 11.6%. Rogers had a decrease to 14.1%, and the lowest aggregate vacancy rate for the 3rd quarter was in Siloam Springs—10.2%.
For residential real estate the Skyline Report primarily looks at new construction. The Center for Business and Economic Research consults with planning departments of NW Arkansas communities to determine new subdivisions which have been approved and building permits which have been issued. They obtain plats and send out students to determine what’s happening on each lot in the active subdivisions. An “active” subdivision is one where construction is currently occurring or has occurred during the past year.
They classify each lot into one of 5 categories: vacant (nothing going on), housing start (slab or foundation), under construction, complete but unoccupied, and occupied.
In both Washington and Benton Counties, the number of lots in active subdivisions has increased, but the number of homes under construction has decreased. In Benton County in Q3 of 2006, there were 12,454 lots, in Q3 of 2007 there were 16,313 lots, and in Q3 of 2008 there were 16,684 lots. In Washington County, there were 8337 lots in Q3 of 2006. In Q3 of 2007 there were 10,450 lots and in Q3 of 2008 there were 10,920 lots in active subdivisions.
There were approximately 100 homes under construction in Fayetteville in Q3, and approximately 240 complete but unoccupied homes. In Springdale there were approximately 50 homes under construction and about 120 complete but unoccupied homes. The absorption rate has been down from past quarters. This means that fewer homes are being sold.
Altogether current inventory of new homes was up in all towns of NW Arkansas with 55.8 months inventory for the 3rd quarter. What this means is that at the current rate of sales, it will take 55.8 months to sell all of the new homes on the market (almost 6 years), assuming that no additional homes are built. This does not take into account existing homes which are also on the market.
One factor of importance is the existence of a lot of foreclosure properties, which are causing a continuing downward pressure on prices. According to Deck, there are 747 bank-owned properties in Benton County, up from 502 six months ago. In Washington County there are 475 bank-owned properties up from 276 six months ago.
Altogether the price of homes sold has continued to decrease in Washington County, but in Benton County, prices have shown less inclination to decline. In Benton County in the 3rd quarter of 2008 the average sales price of existing homes declined by 1.6% and in Washington County by 4.1%.
Of more concern is the fact that from May 16, 2008 to August 15, 2008, there were 1662 existing homes sold in Benton and Washington Counties. This is a decline of 17.5% from the same time period last year.
From my point of view this is a great time to purchase a home. Prices have declined significantly and there are a lot of homes on the market, both new and resale. There are a lot of great deals now.
And for those folks who are waiting for the bottom of the market, we won’t really know when the bottom occurs until after it happens. And then prices will be on their way up again.
The important factor is that real estate investment is not like the stock market. Real estate is a long term investment, not short term. If you want to purchase a home now, plan on holding it at least 5 years to realize any appreciation. So if the market goes down a little more—bottom line is that it doesn’t matter. By the time 5 years have passed, prices will be on the way up again. Real estate is cyclical.
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